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    I don’t know enough about ensemble forecasting to be sure, but I think this would be feasible In principle, the common ‘patchy torrential downpours’ Spring rain pattern would show as rain curves each with different short periods of rain.

    I don’t think the technology is up to that using genuine predictions, but it might be possible to predict that we’re going to get that sort of weather and simulate the ensemble curves.

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    The headline, as you’d expect, got the news wrong: the first sentence of the story is Now, when someone comes up with a finding that contradicts previous research and that they claim even they were surprised by, I’d want pretty good evidence.Morningstar then fought back, saying (a) we tell them it’s based on past performance, not a prediction and (b) it is, too, predictive. Matt Levine (of Bloomberg; annoying free registration) and his readers had an interesting explanation (scroll way down) Several readers, though, proposed an explanation.Morningstar rates funds based on net-of-fee performance, and takes into account sales loads. Funds that were good at picking stocks in the past will, on average, be average at picking stocks in the future; funds that were bad at picking stocks in the past will, on average, be average at picking stocks in the future; that is in the nature of stock picking.Mutual fund trading Here are the predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals.The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

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